ELection 2008 PREDICTIONS

(This column first appeared in print November 14, 2006)

Within the last two weeks all the leaves have fallen off my many large Japanese Elm trees and made a heck of mess of my driveway, lawn, patio, and gutters. My yard transformed from autumnal delight to desolate winter landscape lacking only the chilly charm of snow. Likewise, last week’s election has the Grand ‘Ole Party mimicking my bare trees and messy yard. Looks like both of us have a lot of cleaning up to do.

I’m not a pundit and don’t have any ESP but I’d like to make a few predictions about the political landscape over the next few years. Then, after the 2008 election, pull this puppy out and see just how very wrong I was/am. Won’t that be fun?


Even though the Democratic Party has won the House and Senate America will see a new centrist face of the party over the radicalism shown by Nancy Pelosi or Charley Rangel. Many of the newly elected democrats hold moderate views and radicalism from party leadership stands to turn moderates off and entice them to vote with centrist Republicans. Additionally, after controlling both houses, if this Congress fails to move issues and make significant progress on its campaign agenda they very well may loose big in 2008, a risk even Pelosi won’t take. Historically this trend bears out and Democrats know it.


Republicans needed to clean house for some time, witness the Foley Page Scandal. Last Tuesday they had their clocks cleaned and must now find a way to keep their noses clean and recapture the political center without alienating their base. Republicans can do this by returning to conservative core values: No Big Government, Smart Fiscal Policy, and Foreign Policy Expertise. But, they have to show how they are different from those moderate Democrats, so popular of late, in order to regain control of at least one house in the next election. If the party fails to differentiate they risk losing both Congress and the White House. They have to watch out for traps from the left: minimum wage and an immediate phased pull out from Iraq, which Pelosi et al will put forward to force a vote on the record, exploiting it down the road.


Democratic Ticket for 2008: Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama. Hilary has planned a Presidential bid for a while and currently holds her cards close before she announcing an exploratory committee. With the security of her reelection to the Senate, she can pursue a presidential run and still keep her day job, ala John Kerry. My only wish is that the voters of New York have her serve more days in the Senate during her campaign than Kerry did for Massachusetts. Obama, the freshman senator from Illinois, is riding on a wave of popularity and will certainly explore running for the Oval Office. But, his relative inexperience and the sheer power of Clinton will offer him running mate status. Other Democrat hangers-on such as Kerry, Gore, and John Edwards may attempt runs but don’t stand a chance of gaining enough momentum or cash for the nomination. But, a lot can happen in two years.

The Republican Ticket for 2008 looks promising. Senator John McCain seems like the natural choice for presidential candidate with a strong bipartisan track record. He’s electable. So who will be his running mate? Its gotta be Mitt Romney. Romney brought the Massachusetts budget under control, created a surplus, and has proven to be a strong, effective leader. However, his administration also slashed (or seemed to slash) educational spending in Massachusetts and Democrats will make hay with that news all the way to Election Day. Signing on as running mate brings Romney’s prodigious administrative assets to the table without a Democratic besmirching of his religion or policy decisions becoming the big issue in the race. And it develops Romney for a realistic bid for the Presidency in 2012 or 2016.

I’ve got one last prediction. I welcome our new governor, Deval Patrick, and I believe him when he says he won’t be a rubber stamp for the state legislature (even though he said it right after a meeting with Senate President Robert Travaglini and House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi). And I’m sure he will do all he can to ensure that our property taxes won’t rise, most likely by raising income tax and not continuing past cuts. At the end of the day, he does not have any jurisdiction over property taxes, which of course he knows. That’s why he made the promise in the first place. Get ready, Tewksbury, to hold onto your wallet.